FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Wheat production in 2018 estimated at average level
Cereal exports in 2018/19 forecast to increase from 2017/18 level
Prices of wheat and wheat flour weakened seasonally in recent months
Food insecurity persists in some localized areas
Wheat output in 2018 estimated at average level
Harvesting of the 2018 “rabi” (winter) wheat crop is complete. Cumulative rainfall levels between October 2017 and May 2018 were around 40 percent below the long-term average throughout most of the country. Although water availability for irrigated fields, which accounts for about 90 percent of the total wheat area, was well below average, farmers were able to reduce the impact of the rainfall deficits by accessing ground water supplies. In the minor rainfed farming systems, known locally as “barani”, reduced rains resulted in lower plantings and a decrease in yields, notably in the provinces of Punjab, southwest Balochistan and southeast Sindh. Official estimates released last April puts the 2018 wheat output at 25.4 million tonnes, about 4 percent below the previous year’s bumper level, but still close to the five-year average.
The 2018 main “kharif” paddy (mostly irrigated) and maize crops are currently being planted. As of 6 June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department released a “Drought Alert” indicating that most parts of the country are experiencing severe soil moisture deficits due to persistent below-average rainfall since October 2017. By early June, water availability in the main reservoirs was estimated to be about 60 percent below average, which is constraining planting operations and may affect yields of early-planted crops. The water situation in the major irrigation reservoirs is expected to improve in the coming weeks, with the start of the rainy season as well as the increased melting of snow and glacier due to higher summer temperatures. Overall, sustained strong demand from the domestic feed industry is expected to keep maize plantings close to the previous year’s high level. As rice is expected to remain a remunerative crop due to attractive producer prices and Government support measures, current projections indicate that planted area will be close to last year’s high level, while increased utilization of improved seed varieties is likely to benefit yields.
Cereal exports in 2018/19 forecast to increase from 2017/18 level
Cereal exports consist mostly of rice and wheat. In calendar year 2018, rice exports are forecast at 4.1 million tonnes, with a 12 percent increase from the previous year’s reduced level, reflecting ample availabilities from the 2017 record output. Similarly, wheat exports in the 2018/19 marketing year (May/April) are forecast to increase from last year’s average level. The increase mostly reflects the Government’s incentive programme to boost exports aiming at reducing large carryover stocks that have been built up from successive years of bumper harvests between 2014 and 2017.
Prices of wheat and wheat flour weakened seasonally
Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour, the country’s main staples, weakened seasonally for the third consecutive month in May 2018, reflecting improved market supplies following the “rabi” harvest. Overall, prices in May were close to their year-earlier levels.
Overall food security conditions stable, but concerns remain in southern parts of Sindh Province and in some northern areas
Overall, food security conditions in the country are stable, following five consecutive years of bumper harvests and large carryover stocks of the main food staples. However, there are concerns about food insecurity in some parts of the country, particularly the drought-prone arid southeastern and southwestern areas of Sindh Province, western and southwestern areas of Balochistan Province and in some northern areas, due to the impact of rainfall deficits on local production. Moreover, in southeastern parts of Sindh Province, recurrent drought conditions since 2014 have resulted in successive crop failures and livestock losses, with severe consequences for the livelihoods of the local population.
Recurrent insecurity in the northwestern parts of the country, along the border with Afghanistan, triggered large-scale internal displacement. According to UNOCHA, as of April 2018, about 30 000 households are currently displaced in the Federally‑Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province due to the complex emergency situation. In addition, the country hosts close to 1.4 million registered and unregistered Afghan refugees. These populations rely mainly on humanitarian assistance to cover their basic needs.
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